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Market expectation EUR/USD rising, with initial resistance at 1.5250, higher than current all-time high of 1.5240. The USD is expected to keep close to fresh lows this week after recent heavy losses. Analysts expect the euro to rise towards $1.53 as yield spreads widen in its favor, with the ECB is expected to stand pat on rates March 6 while the Fed is expected to cut March 18. Central bank policy decisions and US economic data will dominate the headlines next week. The reports today included January PCE, consumption, personal income, February Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan sentiment survey. The Australian dollar should provide some mild support until then, with plenty of data over the next few days and a 25bp rate hike expected from the RBA at tomorrow's review. Content Provided by: Dukascopy Logo Dukascopy Interbank Forex Trading for active traders, hedge funds, banks and professionals. Access to the SWFX - Swiss FX Marketplace. 0.5-1 pip spread. One Hundred million at one click. By combining access to the Swiss Foreign Exchange Marketplace with an enhanced trading platform and strong Fore... Freebies Membership Forums Dollar fell to record lows against majors on Friday Forex Analysis Read The Latest Forex Analysis By ACM Advanced Currency Markets : Dollar fell to record lows against majors on Friday ACM Advanced Currency banner1 banner1 banner2 banner2 Home Analysis Dollar fell to record lows against majors on Friday 03-03-2008 - ACM Advanced Currency Markets | General Overview Previous Analysis | Next Analysis Text Size Print Email Add a Comment Bookmark Us The Dollar fell to record lows against the Euro and a basket of currencies for a fourth straight day on Friday as yet another set of weak US economic data left traders betting on an aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut next month. A sharp decline in global and US stocks knocked the Dollar to an all-time low against the Swiss franc and pushed it to a three-year trough against the Japanese Yen. However, short-covering ahead of the weekend halted the Dollar's slide against the Euro. Economic woes coupled with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's warning about the health of some small US banks on Thursday weighed on risk appetite to the benefit of low-yielding currencies like the Yen and Swiss franc. Short-term interest rate futures were showing a 70% chance of the Fed lowering its benchmark overnight lending rate by 75bp at the March 18th monetary policy meeting. The federal funds rate is currently at 3% after being cut by 225bp since mid-September. News and Events: The Dollar fell to record lows against the Euro and a basket of currencies for a fourth straight day on Friday as yet another set of weak US economic data left traders betting on an aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut next month. A sharp decline in global and US stocks knocked the Dollar to an all-time low against the Swiss franc and pushed it to a three-year trough against the Japanese Yen. However, short-covering ahead of the weekend halted the Dollar's slide against the Euro. Data showed US consumer sentiment dropped to a 16-year low in February, while business activity in the country's Midwest contracted sharply, raising red flags for investors wary of a recession in the world's largest economy. The core PCI price index is the Fed's favored inflation gauge. It rose 0.3% in January, in line with market expectations. Economic woes coupled with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's warning about the health of some small US banks on Thursday weighed on risk appetite to the benefit of low-yielding currencies like the Yen and Swiss franc. Low-yielding currencies such as the Yen and the Swiss franc tend to attract flows during periods of uncertainty as the low interest rates reflect the capital surplus of their respective countries. Short-term interest rate futures were showing a 70% chance of the Fed lowering its benchmark overnight lending rate by 75bp at the March 18th monetary policy meeting. The federal funds rate is currently at 3% after being cut by 225bp since mid-September. EurUsd set a record high 1.5239 before surrendering gains to trade down 0.08% at 1.5180. UsdChf fell to a historic low of 1.0403, posting its biggest weekly decline since December 2000. UsdJpy touched a three-year low at 103.69. Today's Key Issues (time in GMT): 00:00 EUR EU Finance Ministers meeting, Brussels 08:30 CHF February PMI 60.4 vs 61.6 09:00 EUR February Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI 52.3 vs 52.8 09:30 GBP February Manufacturing PMI 51 vs 50.6 10:00 EUR February Euro-zone CPI 3.2% vs 3.2% 13:00 USD Fed s Plosser and Treasury Paulson speak on monetary policy, Virginia 13:30 CAD December GDP -0.2% vs 0.1% (MoM) 13:30 CAD 4Q GDP implicit price 1.1% vs 2.9% 15:00 USD February Manufacturing ISM 48 vs 50.7 15:00 USD January Construction spending -0.7% vs -1.1% 15:00 TRY February CPI previously 0.8% (MoM) and 8.17% (YoY) The Risk Today: EurUsd Euro jumped to all-time high 1.5239 on Friday. Medium term trading range is still 1.4500 1.5300. Initial support hold 1.5144 Friday low. Psychological 1.5000 level marks strong support before 1.4500 pivot point. Initial resistance hold 1.5229 Thursday high. GbpUsd Cable advanced up to 1.9972 last Wednesday and consolidated in 1.9762 1.9972 range. Further uptrend would be confirmed over 2.0000 key level and 2.0100 resistance. Renewed pressure below 1.9500 might reopen the way down to 1.9337 January low and 1.9105 (50% retracement of 1.7049 2.1162 advance). Further support holds 1.9630 former Trendline resistance. UsdJpy It remains weak in the 4 last consecutive sessions. On the downside, further weakness might open the door down to 101.68 January 2005 low and 101.22 November 1999 low. On the Upside, only a return over 108 may open the way up to 110.10 strong (Trendline) resistance and mid January double top ahead of 111.92 early January high. UsdChf Market remains weak. It hit Friday 1.0403 in a 4th session low. Further weakness might open the way down to 1.0000 psychological level. Uptrend would return over 1.0700 and open the way for 1.1130 (38.2% of 1.1603 1.0838 decline). Early January double top 1.1191 marks strong resistance. Resistance and Support: By Jean-Claude Braha - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland Content Provided by: ACM Advanced Currency Markets Logo ACM Advanced Currency Markets Trade Forex with ACM at unbeatable conditions. Spreads as low as 1pip, guaranteed fills, one-click execution, 24/7 support. Free $100, 000 Practice Trading Account. Online Forex Trading with unbeatable conditions. 1 account, 4 platforms (Web, Flash, Download, Mobile) Offering the most com... DISCLAIMER: Currency trading risk disclaimer The risk disclaimer is meant to inform the user of the potential financial risks of engaging in foreign exchange trading. The transaction of such financial instruments known as forex, fx, currency and dealt on a valued basis known as 'spot' or 'forward' can contain a substantial degree of risk. 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Forexpros Daily Analysis Forex Analysis Read The Latest Forex Analysis By Forex Trading Edge : Forexpros Daily Analysis Overnight Asia/Europe USD two-sided in technical trade Equities weaker pressuring USD/JPY Carry trade liquidation seen Today s Economic Reports 9:00 AM CST ISM Index forecast 49.0 Looking Ahead Later in the week: ISM Services, ADP private payrolls, NFP and Housing numbers Eurozone GDP Tuesday overnight Summary The USD starts the week sideways in two-way technical trade for the most part after taking a beating last week; traders note that liquidation of carry trades is helping the USD as non-USD pairs are sold for Yen most notably Sterling-Yen. Traders are selling most major pairs and buying Yen which appears to be liquidation pressures as crosses reach near-all-time highs and a lot of money was made on the move. Some book-squaring is noted also as several fundamentals are due out this week that might create volatility for USD players; beige book is out this week and OPEC is meeting also. All US data due is expected to show continuing contraction in the US economy which is pressuring the USD but some traders remind that a 75 BP interest rate cut by the Fed is fully factored into prices now suggesting that a case of buy the rumor/sell the fact may be building momentum as this week s news may already be completely factored in. Should that be the case a sharp rally may be in store and is likely given the current oversold nature of the USD after last week s break. Cable is solidly trading the 1.9800 handle; high prints at 1.9894 and lows at 1.9807. Traders note that the rate came on the board in Asia on the defense and found stops close-in at the 1.9820 area; most likely from late longs set on Friday. EURO continues to trade with a buoyant tone but traders note that offers were plentiful above the 1.5200 handle for a high print at 1.5238; stops were close-in at 1.5180 area for a low print at 1.5160. Bids are said to be layered under 1.5150 with stops a risk under the 1.5130 area but with the recent strength in EURO traders expect the downside to be limited. In my view, the EURO is overbought and a correction back to test the 1.4800 area where the breakout started building for the upside would be reasonable to test the tenacity of the bulls. USD/JPY fell to another low to start the week as Yen is bought across the board but the low prints at 102.60 put the rate at multi-year lows; a significant risk for an upside correction. In my view, the USD is severely oversold and euphoria is driving trade. The late USD seller is at risk and I would be looking for the USD to recover into the end of the week. USD/JPY Daily R3: 104.20 R2: 104.00 R1: 103.50/60 Current Price: 102.96 S1: 102.60 S2: 102.00 S3: 101.50/60 Rate now about 100 points above a 12 year low; significant support seen at the 101.50 area and a short-covering rally is almost a given at that point. Aggressive traders can look to be buyers on further weakness to the low 102.00 handle numbers; a slam-dunk buy in my view on a dip to the 101.50/60 area. Stops a risk above the previous support areas at 103.60 and 104.00; traders note that there is trend-line support at today s lows. Look for a short-squeeze during the week. EURO/USD Daily R3: R2: R1: 1.5230/40 Current Price: 1.5202 S1: 1.5150/60 S2: 1.5100 S3: 1.5060 Rate has three highs at the 1.5220/30 area suggesting that resistance is forming around the 1.4230/40 area, traders note that the rate appears firm at these numbers but the recent run-up may be out of steam and some desks are resigned to a pullback sooner or later. Buy the dip seems to be the strategy/rumor but the quality of that buying is a concern; lot s of model/momentum accounts some desks say. Look for the rate to suffer a sell-off this week. Content Provided by: Forex Trading Edge Logo Forex Trading Edge Forex Trading Edge is committed to providing our clients with the best forex trading services available. Through our relationships with premiere financial institutions, introducing brokers and forex educational advisors worldwide, we provide ... DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Gold Prices: Only Yen Swiss Franc Escape New Record Highs as World Stock Markets Slump, Bond Yields Fall, Inflation Rises Forex Analysis banner1 banner1 banner2 banner2 Home Analysis Gold Prices: Only Yen Swiss Franc Escape New Record Highs as World Stock Markets Slump, Bond Yields Fall, Inflation Rises 03-03-2008 - BullionVault | General Overview Previous Analysis | Next Analysis Text Size Print Email Add a Comment Bookmark Us Gold Prices: Only Yen Swiss Franc Escape New Record Highs as World Stock Markets Slump, Bond Yields Fall, Inflation Rises THE SPOT PRICE OF GOLD leapt in Asian trade Monday, starting the week in London at new record highs against all major currencies except the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen as global stock markets fell yet again. Briefly breaking above $985 for Dollar investors as European stock markets opened the day some 1.5% lower on average, physical Gold Bullion also touched 496.60 and 647.30 per ounce for British and European buyers. The world's three leading reserve currencies meantime held in a tight range against each other on the forex markets, while crude oil slipped 0.9% to trade just below $101 per barrel. "[Some investors] have lost faith in the financial system, " said precious-metals trader Ron Schouten of Hollandsche Bank-Unie in Rotterdam to Bloomberg earlier. "Gold is seen as a safe haven in uncertain times. "The Dollar is weak, there is concern about the credit crisis and the US economy, and raw material prices are sky high." Closing last week at new record highs, the Gold Price has now risen against the Dollar, Euro and Pound Sterling for three months running. The major Western stock markets, in contrast, have been falling since November. Canadian and Australian investors wanting to Buy Gold today also saw the metal reach new all-time highs this morning, while the Indian Rupee price neared 13, 000 per 10 grams. But a sharp rally in the low-yielding Swiss and Japanese currencies matched yet again by those sharp falls in world stock markets capped the Gold Price in CHF and JPY at a two-session high. Asian-Pacific stock markets meantime lost 3% for the day on the MSCI index, while Tokyo dropped 4% after Takefuji Corp. a large consumer lender warned of $290 million lost on structured credit investments. With Japan's financial year-end on March 31 now in sight, Japanese export stocks also sank as the Yen rose to better than 103 per Dollar for the first time since Jan. 2005. Nippon Steel fell 6.8%, Honda lost 5.8%, and Canon dropped 5.2% for the day. "Everybody talks about $1, 000, " says Ronald Leung of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong. "There's Japanese buying today. It's cheaper for them to Buy Gold." "We could see some selling but I don't think it will be aggressive. I don't know what the resistance level is but we can say $970 and $965 will be the support levels." Bloomberg's latest survey of 22 professional Gold Market traders and analysts worldwide says 17 are bullish this week, while two said to sell gold, and three were neutral. Newswire reports this morning say the latest run of record-high Gold Prices put a halt to inventory buying from Hong Kong jewelers today, while Indonesia and Thailand both saw a wave of selling. There was a "surge" in demand for investment gold bars in Vietnam, however. "While investors rushed to sell large metal bars [last month] and demand overall remained very subdued, " says the latest Refining Monitor from Mitsui, "on the flip side one commentator noted that small bars and wafers across India and the Middle East were well in demand." Japanese refining giant Tanaka reported a rise of 140% in its scrap bullion purchases for January compared with the same month in 2007. But "before we think that the physical Gold Market is completely dead in this region, " Mitsui adds, "Tanaka followed up this statement by reporting that investor purchases increased 2.3 times in January. "Importantly Tanaka confirmed that they were net sellers of the precious metal purchasing three times more gold from their clients than they sold in 2007 [as a whole]." Elsewhere in the raw materials market today, soft commodities hit a new series of all-time records as soybeans, corn, palm oil and wheat rose for the third session running. All the major base metals traded at the London Metal Exchange also rose, while crude oil dipped slightly ahead of this week's meeting of the Opec oil cartel. Less than 24 hours after Russian voters backed Vladimir Putin's hand-picked successor former Gazprom chief Dmitry Medvedev to become president with a 77% landslide, Gazprom said today it cut gas supplies to Ukraine by one quarter in a dispute over $600 million in unpaid bills. The last Ukraine-Russian dispute over gas supplies at the start of 2006 led to a shortage in supplies reaching Western Europe, which now relies on Russian imports for around 25% of its natural gas needs. Consumer price inflation in the 14-nation Eurozone held at 3.2% annualized in February, the Eurostat agency said this morning completing the strongest three-month run in living expenses since 1993. European government bond prices rose, however, pushed higher by the flight out of equities and a separate report that showed slower manufacturing growth in February. The yield on 10-year German Bunds slipped four basis points to 3.85%. Two-year yields fell to 3.15%. The Gold Price in Euros has now risen by more than one-third over the last six months. Adrian Ash BullionVault Content Provided by: BullionVault Logo BullionVault BullionVault is where gold investors come to buy gold for storage in a professional bullion vault. The process is secure yet straightforward, and prices are competitive.... DISCLAIMER: Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events and must be verified elsewhere should you choose to act on it. Greenback Bears Are Firmly On Top Forex Analysis Read The Latest Forex Analysis By Forex Yard : Greenback Bears Are Firmly On Top Economic News USD The dollar began the new week in similar fashion to the way in which it closed last week; falling against most of it major currency rivals. Investors will now have to get used to the notion that the 1.50 key level for EUR/USD has been broken and will continue to rise. The major currency pair is currently above 1.5150 and looks to be set in its bullish trend, as data from the US continues to disappoint. The latest scare comes on investor worries regarding additional losses from banks that are under pressure from the subprime mortgage market. The housing and credit crisis has not subsided and is pushing investors away from the greenback. The EUR is not the only currency to see record highs lately versus the dollar. Amongst a basket of common currencies that are seeing gains against the greenback, the JPY is the most notable. Currently floating around 103, the USD/JPY has plummeted to three year lows, and is growing ever closer to the key support level of 100. This week is jam packed with important economic data from all over the world. The US will have its share of important data as we expect figures from Nonfarm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Non Manufacturing ISM, Factory Orders, and Pending Home Sales. These events will be preceded by today's 15:00 GMT release of ISM Manufacturing Prices and Index. Expectations are understandably low, as are most of the forecasts for US data in the coming week. The week's economic data will be coupled with a long list of speeches by important economic policy makers in the US, as the likelihood of more Fed intervention is gaining steam. The contrasting views amongst the economic elite in the US are only contributing to the lack of confidence investors currently have in the dollar. Look toward Tuesday' remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to get a good sense of the US monetary outlook. As data in the US does not look positive for the near future, expect the greenback to continue its epic slide. EUR The EUR has become the beneficiary of the latest USD woes, as it once again gained significant ground against its American rival last week. In total the Euro gained over 2% on the greenback in February, its biggest gain since September of last year. As the EUR grows against the dollar, investors should begin to take into consideration a Euro interest rate cut. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet has been adamant in keeping with his hawkish monetary policy, however the growing divide between the EUR and the dollar is taking its toll on the whole of the Euro-zone economy. The already tense European import/export industry is now faced with even more hurdles as it cannot compete globally with such inflated prices due to its currency strength. The 15 nation currency has seen gains against a majority of its most traded currency rivals, outside of the JPY, whose current strength cannot be rivaled. The Euro-zone has the opportunity within the coming months, assuming that there is a change to monetary policy, to flourish and allow its currency growth to come naturally and not from pure trading momentum or Dollar fears. The importance behind EU economic data moving its own currency is critical in convincing wary dollar investors that the growth is real. The economic calendar this week from the Euro-zone holds several key events. We expect that Thursday morning's scheduled Interest rate statement will involve a small cut in the interest rate. This will be followed by remarks by Trichet who normally triggers some market fluctuation in and around his speeches. Today we expect the release of German Manufacturing PMI and CPI figures, both of which are forecasted to come back with similar numbers to their last release. Either way, they should not effect market movement, as we expect rises in the EUR sans EUR/JPY to continue. JPY The trading week opened today with the JPY gaining against most of the traded currencies. At 7:00 GMT, The JPY obtained a fresh three-year high against the USD as it traded at 102.90 JPY. The JPY also gained 0.55% against the EUR and 0.92% against the GBP. The JPY rally against the USD is mainly a result of the growing worries about the health of the US economy after dismal reports from last week's U.S economic session which showed the sharp impact of the credit crisis. We are nearing a key support level in the USD/JPY of 100. History has shown us that upon approaching this level the currency pair springs back up to make significant gains. Not since the mid-90's have we seen the support level broken, and even then it was short lived. Last Thursday there was a surprising increase in the Japanese consumer spending and rising consumer prices. Those positive indicators assisted in the JPY's bullish behavior. The assumption behind most investors is that the Japanese economy is growing at a steady pace and will continue to do so for most of 2008. Today, as a result of those positive figures from last week, The Japanese currency is likely to remain bullish. There is no important economic news expected to be released in Japan, however, today should see active JPY trading in response to key U.S and Euro-zone data releases. Technical News EUR/USD The pair opened this week's trading session with strong bullish momentum, and is now traded at all time high levels around 1.5230. The 1 hour and the 4 hour chart are indicating on additional bullish momentum, and the daily chart is showing that a potential corrective move might not occur before the pair hits 1.5290. GBP/USD USD/JPY The pair is going through a massive bearish trend, as the daily chart shows 6 consecutive sharp falling bars. There is a bullish cross forming on the daily chart, yet it's still in early stages. The 4 hour chart indicates on the continuation of the bearish trend locally, making it preferable for Forex traders to buy on dips. USD/CHF The pair has been dropping constantly since the local consolidation around 1.0900, and is showing no signs of a halt. There are now the first signals of a corrective move on the daily chart which shows a strong bullish cross on the slow stochastic. The hourlies are floating in neutral territory, and a preferable strategy might be to keep out of this one until a clear signal will appear on the 4 hour chart. The Wild Card Crude Oil Oil is going through a very strong uptrend within a much defined bullish channel. After a local corrective move, we can now see the bullish momentum growing stronger again. This could be a great opportunity for Forex traders to enjoy a very distinct technical formation, with potential for a bullish break beyond the upper section of the channel. Content Provided by: Forex Yard Logo Forex Yard Currency Trading with FOREXYARD, the leader in online currency trading, provides real-time execution, free forex charts and quotes, and 24 hour commission-free forex trading as well as 24 hour trading support. Since formation, monebaggassemonebaggasseFOREX